NORTH KOREAS NUCLEAR GRAPH
US Defence Agency Cautions that Weapon's reliability will be low
(1) What do we know of North's Nuclear Capability ?---Not a great deal.
• North Korea has conducted 3 nuclear tests 2006, 2009 and 2013.
• This year's underground test was by far the most powerful.
• Experts believe it may have been a uranium bomb, rather than a plutonium device as used in the previous two tests.
• North Korea has only successfully tested one medium range ballistic missile, the Rodong-1, with a range of 1,300 km.
(2) What does North Korea Claim ?
---A great deal.
• The North Korean military says it already has an Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) capability and can deliver a nuclear warhead to targets as far away as the continental US.
• Pyongyang said the February test was of a miniaturised 'device and added that it now had a diversified weapons capability - suggesting both uranium and plutonium bombs.
(3) What is the Expert Consensus ?
---Mixed
• Experts agree that, despite the Unha-3 launch, North Korea is years from developing a genuine ICBM capability.
• A few experts believe Pyongyang may have mastered this technique, but the majority believe it would require at least one more nuclear test to develop a working warhead that could fit on a missile.
• At the mid-range level, the North's ballistic missile record is extremely shaky.
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