June 2013 News 19 NORTH KOREAS NUCLEAR GRAPH

NORTH KOREAS NUCLEAR GRAPH

US Defence Agency Cautions that Weapon's  reliability will be low

(1) What do we know of North's Nuclear Capability ?
                                              ---Not a great deal.
•   North Korea has conducted 3 nuclear tests 2006, 2009 and 2013.
•   This year's underground test was by far the most powerful.
•   Experts believe it may have been a uranium bomb, rather than a plutonium device as used in the previous two tests.
•   North Korea has only successfully tested one medium range ballistic missile, the Rodong-1, with a range of     1,300 km.

(2) What does North Korea Claim ?
                                              ---A great deal.

• The North Korean military says it already has an Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) capability and can deliver a nuclear warhead to targets as far away as the continental US.
• Pyongyang said the February test was of a miniaturised 'device and added that it now had a diversified weapons capability - suggesting both uranium and plutonium bombs.


(3) What is the Expert Consensus ?
                                              ---Mixed
• Experts agree that, despite the Unha-3 launch, North Korea is years from developing a genuine ICBM capability.
• A few experts believe Pyongyang may have mastered this technique, but the majority believe it would require at least one more nuclear test to develop a working warhead that could fit on a missile.
• At the mid-range level, the North's ballistic missile record is extremely shaky.